A United Ireland Plebiscite Must Not Become 'A Repeat of Brexit', Analysts Warn

A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion

The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.

Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."

Call for Wider Dialogue

Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."